What happened in Russia and how it affects the Middle East

RUSSIA – Last weekend, Russia looked like Sudan in many ways: a state-backed militia went rogue, defied those who fed it and pushed the country closer to civil war. Anticipations are the rumblings that seismologists call the tremors that precede a great earthquake. It is too early to tell whether the Wagner Group’s “uprising”, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and quickly suppressed, will turn out to be an isolated incident or if it is really the first of a series of omens heralding the crack of leadership. of President Vladimir Putin and a possible more seismic collapse.

Prigozhin led the “uprising”, which was immediately suppressed. The events of the past weekend captured the attention of major cities around the world, including those in the Middle East. Some national capitals were more affected than others. What would happen if the order Putin created in Russia collapsed? How would this affect the Middle East? Iran would undoubtedly emerge as a big loser. Iran and Russia have effectively become friends since fighting together in Syria to support the Assad government, and Iran is sending drones and other forms of military assistance to help Russia continue its war against Ukraine.

These two events contributed to the strengthening of relations between Iran and Russia. Tehran was content to have a major power rival, Russia, on its side as the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and increased sanctions against Iran. The relationship deepened when Russia also sank under sanctions, and the two countries worked together to establish alternative economic and financial relations to circumvent the sanctions. Iran regards China as a friend, but China is not an ally of Iran. He has not been willing to break with the West, nor to support Russia militarily, and he wants to preserve balanced relations not only with the West, but also with Iran’s neighboring Arab petrostates on the other. Gulf side.

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