Trump edges out Biden in Pennsylvania poll from AARP after losing swing state in 2020

Former President Donald Trump holds a slender lead over President Biden in the incumbent’s beginning state of Pennsylvania, a brand new poll has discovered.

Trump, 77, will get 49% assist amongst doubtless Keystone State voters whereas Biden, 81, has 45% with fewer than six months to go till Election Day, in keeping with the survey carried out by Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research for the Pennsylvania chapter of the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP).

Trump’s benefit over Biden, 81, was much more pronounced amongst voters aged 50 and up, with the previous president getting 52% assist in the demographic whereas his successor received 42%.

According to AARP Pennsylvania, 50 and older voters made up greater than half (55%) of the commonwealth’s voters in 2020, when Biden defeated Trump by somewhat greater than 80,000 votes out of greater than 6.8 million ballots solid.

“Pennsylvania voters over age 50 are a critical voting bloc that all candidates are competing for in this election,” mentioned Bill Johnston Walsh, state director of AARP Pennsylvania.

“Pennsylvanians of all political stripes want leaders to protect Social Security and provide support for family caregivers. If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to Pennsylvanians ages 50-plus.”

Donald Trump
Donald Trump has grappled with scheduling conflicts as a result of his courtroom obligations. AP

Four in 5 older Pennsylvania voters say that candidates’ positions on Social Security will likely be essential in deciding who they are going to assist Nov. 5, whereas 73% mentioned the identical of Medicare and two-thirds (67%) mentioned the price of pharmaceuticals was very important to their vote.

In all, 85% of respondents 50 and up mentioned they had been “extremely motivated” to vote this cycle.

Biden has sought to peel older voters away from Trump by accusing him of plotting to slash Social Security and Medicare, a declare the forty fifth president has denied.

President Biden
President Biden and Donald Trump are working neck and neck in most polling. AFP by way of Getty Images

The belief funds behind each packages are careening towards chapter, in keeping with the trustees’ annual experiences.

Social Security’s primary belief fund is about to run dry on money in late 2033, whereas the Medicare Trust fund is anticipated to achieve insolvency in 2036, per the reports launched this week.

According to RealClearPolitics, Trump leads Biden by an average of 1.6 percentage points in surveys of the battleground state.

David McCormick
David McCormick barely misplaced the GOP major for Pennsylvania’s Senate seat in 2022 and is making an attempt once more. AP

RCP additionally has Trump main Biden head-to-head in the important thing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin — all of which the Republican misplaced 4 years in the past, apart from North Carolina.

Pennsylvania can also be residence to one of many most-watched Senate races of 2024 between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. and Republican businessman David McCormick.

Casey led McCormick 48% to 44% amongst all doubtless Pennsylvania voters, however narrowly trails the Republican 48% to 47% amongst voters 50 and up.

Bob Casey
Bob Casey Jr. as soon as described himself as a ‘pro-life’ Democrat. AP

The survey sampled 1,398 doubtless Pennsylvania voters April 24-30, together with a statewide pattern of 600 doubtless voters with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 share factors.

It additionally included an oversample of 800 voters aged 50 and up with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 share factors.

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